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A Critical Reassessment of the Anthropogenic CO₂-Global Warming Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence Contradicts IPCC Models and Solar Forcing Assumptions
Jonathan Cohler* — Cohler & Associates, Inc., Lexington, MA, USA
David Legates
Franklin Soon
Willie Soon
* Corresponding author
2025
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Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) attributes observed climate variability primarily to anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. This conclusion relies heavily on adjusted datasets and outputs from global climate models (GCMs) within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) framework. However, this study conducts a rigorous evaluation of these assertions by juxtaposing them against unadjusted observational data and synthesizing findings from recent peer-reviewed literature. Our analysis reveals that human CO₂ emissions, constituting a mere 4% of the annual carbon cycle, are dwarfed by natural fluxes, with isotopic signatures and residence time data indicating negligible long-term atmospheric retention. Moreover, individual CMIP3 (2005-2006), CMIP5 (2010-2014), and CMIP6 (2013-2016) model runs consistently fail to replicate observed temperature trajectories and sea ice extent trends, exhibiting correlations (R²) near zero when compared to unadjusted records. A critical flaw emerges in the IPCC's reliance on a single, low-variability Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) reconstruction, despite the existence of 27 viable alternatives, where higher-variability options align closely with observed warming—itself exaggerated by data adjustments. We conclude that the anthropogenic CO₂-Global Warming hypothesis lacks empirical substantiation, overshadowed by natural drivers such as temperature feedbacks and solar variability, necessitating a fundamental reevaluation of current climate paradigms.
Keywords: global warming, climate change, climate modeling, atmospheric CO2, residence time, future CO2 scenarios, IPCC, total solar irradiance, TSI